Anastasiya Luzgina|Marc Pilkington| 25.08.2021
Philosophy of Monetary Policy and Fintech in Belarus: Main Trends and Interconnection Through the Prism of Narrative Approach
In the first part of the work, through the philosophical approach, the development of the monetary policy of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus is considered, including the analysis of the possibilities of transition to the inflation targeting regime, taking into account the study of the narrative approach. In the second part of the study, the authors consider the fintech market of the country, the formation of which was made possible largely due to the developed IT sector.
Exploring SVAR-Based Empirical Measure of Inflation Expectations for Belarus
This paper explores empirical SVAR-based measure of inflation expectations for Belarus.
Measuring fiscal multipliers for the Belarusian economy
This study is devoted to the theoretical concepts of fiscal multipliers and their assessment for the Belarusian economy, in particular the magnitudes of these multipliers for the revenue and spending parts of the budget of Belarus.
Anastasia Luzgina| 17.11.2018
Money and monetary funds as economic categories and their relationship with cryptocurrencies
In the article the categories of “money” and “monetary funds” are analyzed and the author’s interpretation of these definitions are given. Taking into account the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies, the author proposes a structure of interrelations of monetary funds, tokens, electronic and virtual money. With the purpose of giving a clearer understanding of the government positions on the issue of the virtual money market development, the article provides examples of operations’ regulations with cryptocurrencies in a number of countries.
The influence of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy in Belarus
The paper determines episodes of financial stress in Belarus during 2004-2016 period using constructed financial stress index, and offers an analytical framework to evaluate the influence of financial turmoil on Belarus's economy, in particular economic activity and monetary policy. The findings show evidence of two episodes of financial stress and two episodes of recessions in Belarus during studied period. The results from the estimated ARDL models show that high level of financial stress causes the substantial downturn in economic activity of Belarus. Moreover, the results of Toda and Yamamoto causality analysis indicate that higher financial stress in Belarus has led to lower economic activity that caused higher inflation, which in turn led to higher policy rate introduced in order to constrain inflation in Belarus. Finally, from theoretical point of view results also signify that there is no evidence for the support of the conventional wisdom hypothesis in Belarus since 2004. Therefore, price stability is not a sufficient condition to support financial stability in Belarus and should certainly be addressed independently of the objective of price stability of the National Bank of Belarus.
Dollarization and De-dollarization: Formulation of Agenda
This policy paper deals with the phenomena of dollarization and prospects of de-dollarization policies in Belarus. During last two decades Belarus has been a highly dollarized economy. Recently, the authorities declared a campaign of de-dollarization, which, however, focuses mainly on de-dollarization of payments. Such a policy is unlikely to become effective.