05.10.2020FREE Policy Brief: Does Political Illegitimacy in Belarus Imply New Economic Risks?
Today’s political crisis in Belarus has given a rise to the phenomenon classified in political science as political illegitimacy. We argue that resolving the political crisis in a way that revives trust and legitimacy is the only ‘good’ solution.
31.08.2020Macroeconomic situation-2019: a typical year of stagnation
In 2019, the Belarusian authorities were trying to maintain an infirm balance between (1) the preservation of the economic model with a dominant role of state-run enterprises, (2) a comforting rate of output growth, and (3) macroeconomic and financial stability. No success was achieved, and one of the components had to be sacrificed.
Kirill Shakhnov| 13.10.2015Belarusian Business Cycle in Cross-country Comparison: Industry and Aggregate Data
The paper documents stylized facts about Belarusian business cycle based on aggregate and industry data and puts it into an international content. First, the aggregate fluctuations in Belarus are mostly driven by the wedge, which resembles a time-varying investment tax. Second, the fluctuation in relative prices of an industry is typically more important than volume fluctuation. Furthermore, the impact of price fluctuations is partially o@ffset by volume fluctuation. Third, the aggregate cycle is smoother than the industry-specific one. In particular, agriculture, construction and finance experience a very sharp drop in a recession.