Macroeconomic forecast for Belarus. 2024–2025

The Belarusian GDP will grow by 2.1% in 2024 following its 3.9% growth in 2023. The effectiveness of economic incentives will decrease in the environment of the reached ceiling of capacity utilization and the increasingly negative impact of price controls on investment activity and the financial position of firms. In 2025, the Belarusian economy will stagnate, adjusting to its balanced state after overheating. Blanket price controls will continue to limit the translation of costs increased in an environment of excess demand and labor shortages into inflation, which is projected to be 6.1% YoY in 2024 and 8.3% YoY in 2025. In terms of the foreign currency basket, the Belarusian ruble will weaken by 4–6% in Q4-2024 versus Q4-2023 amid the projected deterioration in foreign trade.