Working Papers

Kirill Shakhnov| 13.10.2015

Belarusian Business Cycle in Cross-country Comparison: Industry and Aggregate Data

The paper documents stylized facts about Belarusian business cycle based on aggregate and industry data and puts it into an international content. First, the aggregate fluctuations in Belarus are mostly driven by the wedge, which resembles a time-varying investment tax. Second, the  fluctuation in relative prices of an industry is typically more important than volume  fluctuation. Furthermore, the impact of price fluctuations is partially o@ffset by volume  fluctuation. Third, the aggregate cycle is smoother than the industry-speci fic one. In particular, agriculture, construction and fi nance experience a very sharp drop in a recession.