Monitoring. Briefs


Macroeconomic forecast for Belarus-2024

The growth of the Belarusian economy will slow down significantly in 2024, and inflationary processes will concurrently intensify. Prospects for maintaining high GDP growth have weakened significantly, as the economy has been overheated by monetary and fiscal stimuli in 2023. Maintaining loose monetary conditions and increasing budget expenditures in 2024 will lead not so much to an output growth, but to higher price pressure. As a result, GDP growth will slow down from 3.9% in 2023 to 1.6% in 2024, even if adjusted supply chains and political track remain focused on holistic support of economic activity. Stimulative economic policy will revitalize the challenge of high inflation, which will accelerate from 5.6% in 2023 to 9.3% in 2024. The Belarusian ruble will weaken by 8–9% in 2024 versus the basket of currencies with a projected deterioration of foreign trade