31.08.2020Macroeconomic situation-2019: a typical year of stagnation
In 2019, the Belarusian authorities were trying to maintain an infirm balance between (1) the preservation of the economic model with a dominant role of state-run enterprises, (2) a comforting rate of output growth, and (3) macroeconomic and financial stability. No success was achieved, and one of the components had to be sacrificed.
31.10.2019Belarus tends to face a ‘systemic fragility’
From a short-term perspective and ‘local’ view, this does not seem to change the environment considerably. According to such view, given the commitment of the authorities to monetary and financial stability (since 2015 it seems to be rather firm) the decay of the ‘recovery growth mark-up’ does not mean anything except weaker growth of incomes. However, from a longer-term perspective and a ‘big picture’ view, one can detect such kind of threats.
19.08.2019Belarusian Economy in mid-2019: the Aftermath of Recovery Growth Period
By mid-2019, a period of recovery growth has been accomplished and the national economy enters a new stage of development. This policy paper sums up and analyzes the results of the recovery growth period. The paper argues that the results are contradictory.
09.07.2019Productivity or the External Environment: Which is More Important for Growth in Emerging Markets?
The goal of this research is to assess and compare growth promoting effects associated with productivity determinants and external environment determinants in 34 emerging market economies.
20.12.2018Perspective and Challenges for Belarus’ Economy in the Medium-Run (2018-2020)
This policy paper deals with the perspectives of the national economy development in 2018-2020. The study emphasizes that fluctuations around equilibrium growth rate is the most likely scenario. The study uses the estimate of 2.5% of equilibrium growth rate for Belarus, which is a compromise among different approaches and methodologies. The scenario of higher growth may become possible due to positive external shocks. However, even in case of permanently strengthening external environment, the growth rate of the national economy is still likely to be unsustainable.
09.11.2018Which Growth Rate does Belarus need? Focus on CEE Leaders
This paper deals with the prospects of Belarus’ economic growth in regional context. Such focus of analysis emphasizes relative level of well-being as the benchmark for assessing economic performance of the country. In this study, I use Czech Republic and Slovakia as benchmarks for Belarus, as they are rather similar to Belarus according to a range of fundamental characteristics, and at the same time, they are among leaders on well-being level in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).