Belarus tends to face a ‘systemic fragility’

From a short-term perspective and ‘local’ view, this does not seem to change the environment considerably. According to such view, given the commitment of the authorities to monetary and financial stability (since 2015 it seems to be rather firm) the decay of the ‘recovery growth mark-up’ does not mean anything except weaker growth of incomes. Moreover, one can argue that during the period of the recovery growth the country has reinforced its resilience to external shocks. For instance, debt burden (both private and public) reduced, while the level of international reserves increased. Baseline projections based on this view mainly postulate further domination of low growth/stagnation environment, but without severe shocks and systemic threats. However, from a longer-term perspective and a ‘big picture’ view, one can detect such kind of threats.