Monitoring. Briefs


Macroeconomic forecast for Belarus. 2023–2024

The country's GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2023 and by 1.1% in 2024 if the upgraded supply chains are maintained, if there are no new significant sanctions imposed on the country, and if monetary and fiscal policies continue to focus on stimulating domestic demand. A fully sustainable economic recovery is unlikely in the coming years due to infrastructural constraints, declining employment, human capital erosion, and weakening trust among the business environment stakeholders. Side effects of the stimulating economic policy in the face of structural output losses will be the weakening of the Belarusian ruble, as well as the persistence of elevated inflation, which will be about 8% in 2023 and 8.6% in 2024