Since the mid-2000s, the fertility rate in Belarus was increasing and staying higher than optimistic forecasts of the UN. However, since 2017 the trend has turned around without any negative shocks from the economy or demographic and social policy. This discussion paper analyzes what happens to Belarusian fertility, why this happens and how social policy affects fertility.

This paper is a part of the research about attitudes of Belarusians to the system of social protection. The research is carried out by the IPM Research Center together with BEROC. It is based on ten focus groups conducted in June 2019.

This paper shows that the pension system of Belarus must be reformed and proposes the most effective reforms among all available alternatives.