Since the mid-2000s, the fertility rate in Belarus was increasing and staying higher than optimistic forecasts of the UN. However, since 2017 the trend has turned around without any negative shocks from the economy or demographic and social policy. This discussion paper analyzes what happens to Belarusian fertility, why this happens and how social policy affects fertility.

This paper analyzes the effects of child-care leave and maternity capital policies, and provides recommendations for Belarus.