Working Papers

Working papers - academic research on economy aimed at enhancing the knowledge about economic processes, problems and trends through development of new theories and concepts. The results of these studies are published in leading international journals, as for example SAGE Knowledge, Journal of Economic Development, Research Policy (Science Direct)Baltic Journal of Economics, Eastern Economic Journal and etc.

Productivity or the External Environment: Which is More Important for Growth in Emerging Markets?
The goal of this research is to assess and compare growth promoting effects associated with productivity determinants and external environment determinants in 34 emerging market economies.
Spatial wage inequality in Belarus
This paper studies the wage inequality in Belarus' districts from 2000 till 2015 following the multi-step and multi-mechanism framework. The empirical results show: first, that wage disparities across the districts decreased in the 2000-2012 period and then increased from 2013 to 2015; second, there is the spatial dependency in district wages and increasing separation between districts, and between rural and urban population in Belarus; third, the main economic factors that contribute to decrease in district wage inequality are industrial development, retail trade and agricultural development. Finally, from theoretical point of view this research rejects the inverted U-shaped relationship between spatial inequality and economic development for Belarus and supports the hypothesis made by French economist Thomas Piketty that slow growth rates lead to rising inequality.
Exchange Rate, Imports of Intermediate and Capital Goods and GDP Growth in Belarus
The paper analyzes the short-run and long-run effects of imports of intermediate and capital goods on Belarusian economic growth for the period 2005 to 2015 taking into account large upward and downward exchange rate adjustments of Belarusian ruble. The empirical findings from the autoregressive distributed lag regressions indicate that there are negative effects of imports of intermediate goods on economic growth both in the short and long run. Second, contrary to the theory devaluation of the Belarusian ruble negatively influences both GDP growth and imports of intermediate goods in Belarus. Third, the results of Toda–Yamamoto causality test shows that GDP growth Granger causes growth in imports and exports, supporting the hypothesis that trade is more a consequence of the rapid economic growth in Belarus than a cause. Fourth, the findings from forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) confirm results obtained from TY causality test and additionally emphasize that changes in imports in Belarus are mostly driven by changes in exports especially in the long-run. Finally, the findings from VDC also indicate that the main contributor to growth fluctuations are domestic capital investments.
Kateryna Bornukova| 11.02.2014
Belarusian Economic Growth Decomposition
Belarus experienced rapid economic growth in the 2000's, which abruptly came to halt after 2008. The authors found that the major source of growth was capital accumulation, while growth in total factor productivity (TFP) was modest. Moreover, government interventions and controls on the capital market contributed to misallocation which lowered aggregate productivity. Lack of productivity growth led to the loss of competitiveness on the international markets. Comparisons of TFP in Belarus with the Czech Republic and Sweden shows that comparative advantages of Belarus are concentrated in the natural-resource based industries, and TFP gap with the Czech Republic is not closing over time.
Kiryl Haiduk| 11.03.2013
The Outcome of Directed Lending in Belarus: Mitigating Recession or Dampening Long-Run Growth?
This study analyzes the effects of directed lending upon total factor productivity and GDP growth in Belarus over the period of 2000–2012.
The Impact of Directed Lending on Long-Run Growth in Belarus
The study deals with a specific form of financial repression peculiar to Belarus – a mechanism of directed loans.