Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus:
The paper presents a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for the Belarusian economy. The model has a New Keynesian basis and considers the key characteristics of the Belarusian economy and the monetary sphere. Simulations within the QPM made it possible to study the reaction of the key Belarusian macroeconomic indicators to the impact of shocks, as well as to substantiate differences in the behavior of the economic system under the influence of shocks with different designs of monetary and exchange rate policies. The QPM application to empirical data on Belarus made it possible to assess the dynamics of unobserved macroeconomic indicators, the stance of monetary, exchange rate and fiscal policies, drivers of inflationary processes and the economic cycle. A scenario macroeconomic forecast for Belarus for 2023–2024 has been developed based on QPM.
Keywords: QPM, model, GDP, output gap, equilibrium level, inflation, monetary policy, interest rate, exchange rate, impulse-response function, specification, calibration, simulation