Express Analysis. January 2024

The Belarusian economy slows down, and the Belarusian authorities may prioritize curbing inflation in 2024.
GDP grew by 3.9% in 2023. The output dynamics weakened at the year-end: annual growth slowed from 6.2% YoY in Q3-2023 to ≈4.9% YoY in Q4-2023 (≈4% YoY in December), quarterly growth (seasonally adjusted) slowed down from ≈1.3% QoQ Q3-2023 to ≈0.5% QoQ Q4-2023, and the seasonally adjusted volume of GDP decreased in November-December. The growth impulse has been fading due to limited supply, primarily because of labor shortage, increasing complexity of logistics, and increasing competition in the Russian market. Under the influence of these factors and due to tightening market lending conditions, the economy will stagnate in 2024, which corresponds to annual GDP growth of around 2-3% YoY in Q1-2024 and its further slowdown throughout 2024.