Economic and Electoral Cycles in Belarus: Interrelationships and Challenges of 2025–2026

The high rates of economic growth in Belarus in 2023–2024, amidst explosive consumer activity, raise concerns about its quality and sustainability. To a significant extent, GDP growth has been driven by an excessively loose economic policy, which at least partially could have been motivated by the 2024-2025 electoral campaign. Based on a macroeconomic gap model, this study examines the relationship between electoral and economic cycles in Belarus. The results indicate that in pre-election years and election years the economy typically operated in a state of excess demand. Budget spending and wages played a significant role in forming this demand.