Macroeconomic forecast for Belarus. 2025–2026

Economic activity in Belarus will remain high in 2025 amid accommodative economic policies, but GDP growth will slow significantly due to resource constraints.
Belarus’s GDP is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2025, following a 3.9% increase in 2024. GDP growth will be constrained by a slowdown in the Russian economy, labor and capacity shortages, logistical challenges, and uncertainty surrounding sanctions. In turn, stimulative fiscal policy, non-restrictive monetary conditions, and government efforts to boost public investment will sustain high domestic demand. As a result, the economy will continue to operate under conditions of excess demand, sustaining significant inflationary pressures. If price controls are relaxed, inflation is expected to rise from 5.4% in 2024 to 7.6% in 2025. The Belarusian ruble is forecast to depreciate by 4–6% against a currency basket in 2025, while interest rates on loans and deposits in rubles are likely to remain near neutral levels.