Express Analysis. October 2024

Economic Activity in Belarus Remained High in Q3-2024, but Growth Slowed Considerably. For the first nine months of 2024, GDP grew by 4.5% YoY, and in September, it increased by ≈1.6% YoY (Fig. 2.a). GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) in September added ≈1% compared to August, recovering slightly from the nearly 4% decline in the previous month (Fig. 2.b). Output dynamics between July and September were volatile due to the uneven timing of grain harvesting. Overall, GDP in Q3-2024 showed near-zero growth to Q2-2024 (Fig. 1.b), but thanks to growth in the first half of the year, it rose by 3.6% compared to Q3-2023 (5.5% YoY in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023). By the end of 2024, GDP is expected to grow by ≈4–4.5% YoY.