Express Analysis. November 2024

Economic Activity in Belarus Remained High in Early Q4-2024, but Did Not Show Growth. For the first ten months of 2024, GDP grew by 4.2% YoY, and in October, it increased by ≈2.6% YoY. GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) in October decreased by ≈0.5% compared to September. Weak performance in agriculture and a decline in wholesale trade (likely reflecting restrained export dynamics) led to a reduction in output. Meanwhile, increased consumer demand driven by rising wages and household lending, as well as recovery processes in the ICT sector, supported economic activity. By the end of the year, the cumulative GDP growth is expected to remain close to its current level, with real GDP volume in Q4-2024 projected to be about 3% above its balanced level.