Express Analysis. January 2025

The economy enters 2025 in an overheated state, with GDP volume preliminarily estimated to be ≈2.4% above the sustainable level in Q4-2024. Excessive stimulation of consumer demand yielded low returns in terms of output growth, contributed to a widening foreign trade deficit, drove a rapid rise in the cost of unregulated services, and posed risks of increasing macroeconomic imbalances. In the baseline scenario, GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.5–2% in 2025