Express Analysis. December 2024

Belarus’s GDP growth slowed significantly in November due to a decline in industrial production. For January – November 2024, GDP grew by 3.9% YoY, and in November, it increased by ≈1% YoY. GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) in November decreased by ≈0.5% compared to October. The sharp and substantial reduction in production in the Minsk region weakened output, negatively affecting wholesale trade and freight turnover. This likely reflects the possible decline in potash fertilizer production following Alexander Lukashenko’s remarks about considering a 10–11% reduction in potash extraction. As a result of this new growth-limiting factor, Belarus’s GDP growth for the current year may fall below previous estimates and not exceed 3.9%.