The paper employs the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) framework to present a first attempt at a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis for Belarus, encompassing both the revenue and expenditures components of the fiscal system, including direct and indirect taxes, as well as direct, indirect and in-kind transfers. The analysis reveals that fiscal policies in Belarus effectively redistribute income from the top to the bottom of the income distribution. Direct transfers, in particular pensions, are the most equalizing and pro-poor of the fiscal interventions – direct transfers and direct taxes lower the national poverty headcount by 17 percentage points and lower the Gini index of inequality from 0.407 to 0.267. Some of the indirect taxes, on the other hand, are regressive, and indirect transfers – poorly targeted, such that the effect of these components of the fiscal system is not equalizing. Finally, the cost-efficiency of different parts of the fiscal system in Belarus varies considerably. Unemployment benefits, pensions and child benefits are found to be cost-efficient, while indirect subsidies are highly cost-inefficient. The analysis points towards possible reforms that would allow to reduce poverty and inequality more efficiently.

This work suggests steps for reforming of Belarusian SOEs in order to find new sources of growth. Major mechanisms of efficiency increase are introduction and improvement of corporate governance, privatization/ attraction of investors, and bankrupcy and liquidation.

wiiw and BEROC study finds that the transition model of the past quarter century has reached its limits, and argues that policy changes are necessary if the system is to survive.

Public Sector Performance Index (PSP) and Public Sector Efficiency Index (PSE) are the most accessible ways to estimate the comparative efficiency of public finance on the macroeconomic level. We construct PSP and PSE indices for Belarus and find that the efficiency of public expenditures in Belarus is high compared to other post-Soviet economies.